The Effect of Land Use Change on Flood Discharge in Batam City Using GIS Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37253/jcep.v6i2.11506Keywords:
Land Use, flood, arcgisAbstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of land use change on flood discharge in Batam City for the period 2014–2023 by integrating spatial analysis based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and hydrological analysis using the Rational Method. The data used included Landsat satellite images from 2014 and 2023, annual maximum rainfall data for 10 years, and data on the area of the river basin. Land use changes were analyzed through supervised classification and their contribution to changes in the runoff coefficient was calculated based on the area of each land class. The results of the study show a 10.86% reduction in forest area and a 4.50% increase in built-up land. These changes have resulted in an increase in the average runoff coefficient of the watershed, which in turn has increased the maximum planned flood discharge. The calculation results show an increase in average flood discharge of 11.89% or around 50.47 m³/second from 2014 to 2023. This study confirms that land use changes due to urbanization contribute significantly to an increased risk of flooding in Batam City, thus requiring sustainable spatial management.
Downloads
References
F. Jerome Glago, “Flood Disaster Hazards; Causes, Impacts and Management: A State-of-the-Art Review,” in Natural Hazards - Impacts, Adjustments and Resilience, IntechOpen, 2021. doi: 10.5772/intechopen.95048.
B. Gan, X. Liu, X. Yang, X. Wang, and J. Zhou, “The impact of human activities on the occurrence of mountain flood hazards: lessons from the 17 August 2015 flash flood/debris flow event in Xuyong County, south-western China,” Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 816–840, Jan. 2018, doi: 10.1080/19475705.2018.1480539.
S. A. Maskrey, N. J. Mount, and C. R. Thorne, “Doing flood risk modelling differently: Evaluating the potential for participatory techniques to broaden flood risk management decision‐making,” J. Flood Risk Manag., vol. 15, no. 1, Mar. 2022, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12757.
M. Bentivenga, S. I. Giano, and M. Piccarreta, “Recent Increase of Flood Frequency in the Ionian Belt of Basilicata Region, Southern Italy: Human or Climatic Changes?,” Water, vol. 12, no. 7, p. 2062, Jul. 2020, doi: 10.3390/w12072062.
G. Blöschl, “Three hypotheses on changing river flood hazards,” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 26, no. 19, pp. 5015–5033, Oct. 2022, doi: 10.5194/hess-26-5015-2022.
M. A. Wahyudi, A. J. Saputra, and A. Savitri, “Analisis Kapasitas Saluran Drainase pada Wilayah Rawan Banjir dengan Menggunakan Pemodelan Perangkat Lunak SWMM,” Media Konstr., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 83–94, 2025, doi: 10.33772/jmk.v10i1.96.
M. R. Fauzi, “Analisis Pengaruh Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Terhadap Debit Banjir Pada Daerah Aliran Sungai Cilangla (Analysis Effect of Land Cover Change on Flood Discharge in Cilangla Watershed),” 2022.
Z. Yaqdhan and L. Utama, “Analisa Pengaruh Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan Terhadap Debit Banjir Das Batang Timpeh,” 2023.
H. Chauhan, B. K. Mishra, S. Nath Rajan, A. Tiwari, and A. Goel, “Land Cover Analysis and Change Detection: Comprehensive Study with Linear Regression Prediction,” in 2024 1st International Conference on Advanced Computing and Emerging Technologies (ACET), Aug. 2024, pp. 1–6. doi: 10.1109/ACET61898.2024.10730346.
E. Janicka and J. Kanclerz, “Assessing the Effects of Urbanization on Water Flow and Flood Events Using the HEC-HMS Model in the Wirynka River Catchment, Poland,” Water, vol. 15, no. 1, p. 86, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.3390/w15010086.
A. Bylak et al., “Small stream catchments in a developing city context: The importance of land cover changes on the ecological status of streams and the possibilities for providing ecosystem services,” Sci. Total Environ., vol. 815, p. 151974, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151974.
H. Joo, W. Choi, and C. Jeon, “Selection of representative indicators for flood risk assessment using marginal entropy and mutual information,” J. Flood Risk Manag., vol. 17, no. 2, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12976.
A. Shawul and S. Chakma, “The Response of Peak Discharge and Sedimentation to the Land Use/Land Cover Change Scenarios in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia.” Jan. 28, 2019. doi: 10.1002/essoar.10500582.1.
R. Saher, T. Ali Shaikh, S. Ahmad, and H. Stephen, “Analysis of Changes in Runoff Due to Land Cover Change,” in Watershed Management 2020, Jul. 2020, pp. 245–256. doi: 10.1061/9780784483060.022.
Q. Zheng, L. Hao, X. Huang, L. Sun, and G. Sun, “Effects of Urbanization on Watershed Evapotranspiration and Its Components in Southern China,” Water, vol. 12, no. 3, p. 645, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.3390/w12030645.
A. Yulianur, S. Sugianto, and F. M. Puspita, “A Simple Method to Develop a Formula for Estimating Concentration Time of Drainage Design,” Aceh Int. J. Sci. Technol., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 137–142, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.13170/aijst.8.3.14819.
S. Soni, D. S. Shiwani, and A. Arora, “Impact of Land Cover Land Use Changes (LCLUC) on Earth Resources & Human Life – A Literature Survey,” SSRN Electron. J., 2020, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3549156.
K. Winkler, R. Fuchs, M. Rounsevell, and M. Herold, “Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated,” Nat. Commun., vol. 12, no. 1, p. 2501, May 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2.
N. Irfan Asyari, S. R. P Sitorus, and A. Wicaksono, “Land Use Change Pattern of Change and Strategy Directions for Spatial Utilization Control in Bogor Regency,” J. World Sci., vol. 3, no. 7, pp. 732–749, Jul. 2024, doi: 10.58344/jws.v3i7.665.
R. Mahtta et al., “Urban land expansion: the role of population and economic growth for 300+ cities,” npj Urban Sustain., vol. 2, no. 1, p. 5, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.1038/s42949-022-00048-y.
Sukisno, Widiatmaka, J. J. Purwanto, B. Pramudya N, and K. Munibah, “A Review of Land Use Land Cover Change in The Catchment Area of Musi Hydropower Plant in Bengkulu Province,” E3S Web Conf., vol. 305, p. 04001, Sep. 2021, doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202130504001.
E. Alshammari, A. A. Rahman, R. Rainis, N. A. Seri, and N. F. A. Fuzi, “The Impacts of Land Use Changes in Urban Hydrology, Runoff and Flooding: A Review,” Curr. Urban Stud., vol. 11, no. 01, pp. 120–141, 2023, doi: 10.4236/cus.2023.111007.
J. C. Balasch, J. Tuset, M. Barriendos, X. Castelltort, and D. Pino, “The unit peak discharge as a tool for flood magnitude comparison and analysis.” Mar. 04, 2021. doi: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11192.
I. Sahdar, D. Rohmat, and W. A. Pranoto, “Analysis of Peak Flood Discharge in Small-Scale River Flow Area,” IJEBD (International J. Entrep. Bus. Dev., vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 244–253, Mar. 2023, doi: 10.29138/ijebd.v6i2.2128.
H. Basri, S. Syakur, A. Azmeri, and E. Fatimah, “Floods and their problems: Land uses and soil types perspectives,” IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., vol. 951, no. 1, p. 012111, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/951/1/012111.
J. Elisabeth Sitorus, D. H. Wisanggeni, A. A. Salsabila, and M. S. Badri Kusuma, “The Assessment of Peak Discharge Increment Due to Land Use Change in the Serang Welahan Drainage 1 (SWD 1) River, Central Java Province, Semarang,” J. Tek. Sipil dan Lingkung., vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 293–302, Oct. 2024, doi: 10.29244/jsil.9.2.293-302.
D.-V. Hoang and Y.-A. Liou, “Assessing the influence of human activities on flash flood susceptibility in mountainous regions of Vietnam,” Ecol. Indic., vol. 158, p. 111417, Jan. 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111417.
N. Chhinh, S. Rath, and K. Choeun, “Alteration of Flood Peak Discharge by Land Cover Change in Prek Thnot Watershed, Kampong Speu Provine, Cambodia,” Insight Cambodia J. Basic Appl. Res., vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 22–33, Feb. 2024, doi: 10.61945/cjbar.2023.5.2.04.
J. C. Bathurst, B. Fahey, A. Iroumé, and J. Jones, “Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods,” Hydrol. Process., vol. 34, no. 15, pp. 3295–3310, Jul. 2020, doi: 10.1002/hyp.13802.
S. L. Letsinger, A. Balberg, E. Hanna, and E. K. Hiatt, “Geohydrology: Watershed Hydrology,” in Encyclopedia of Geology, Elsevier, 2021, pp. 442–456. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.12389-9.
I. G. A. P. Eryani, M. W. Jayantari, and I. N. N. Artana, “Study of Yeh Embang Watershed Characteristics for Sustainable Water Management,” IOP Conf. Ser. Earth Environ. Sci., vol. 1117, no. 1, p. 012060, Dec. 2022, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1117/1/012060.
Y. Zhou, “Watershed Hydrology and Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LULCC),” in Fresh Water and Watersheds, Second edition. | Boca Raton: CRC Press, [2020] | Revised edition of: Encyclopedia of natural resources. [2014].: CRC Press, 2020, pp. 221–224. doi: 10.1201/9780429441042-32.
V. B. P. Chagas, P. L. B. Chaffe, and G. Blöschl, “Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle,” Nat. Commun., vol. 13, no. 1, p. 5136, Sep. 2022, doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32580-x.
Z. Arifin and A. Maulidiyah, “Analisa Debit Banjir Rencana DAS Rejoso Menggunakan Metode Hidrograf Satuan Sintetik Nakayasu,” J. Komposit, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 17–26, Feb. 2025, doi: 10.32832/komposit.v9i1.17597.
T. Susilawati and Maulani Ikhsan, “Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan Terhadap Debit Air,” J. TAMBORA, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 11–18, Jan. 2024, doi: 10.36761/tambora.v8i1.3506.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Sri Dewi Lestari, Ade Jaya Saputra, Joewono Prasetijo

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.










